"Please send more information." I have already written millions of words trying to help collectors understand collecting and how they can estimate prices for certificates. Yet people still send hundreds of inquiries per year asking for "more information."

This web site currently includes almost 400 pages of static information plus over 7,500 database-driven pages of information about certificates from specific companies. Behind those pages lie a additional 15,000 to 20,000 pages of pictures and serial numbers. With this huge amount of information already available, it is hard to imagine I can possibly add anything substantive.

Do collectors really want MORE information? Not really. I strongly believe most people actually want less information. I think most people would be happy with single-word answers. They want to know what their certificates are worth.

My experience suggests that when people ask for "more information," 90% of the time they want to learn what they can get if they sell their certificates. I understand.

Except there is a little problem.

I can tell people what certificates have historically sold for. In general, I can estimate what certificates might sell for in the next few months. In general, I can estimate what certificates might sell for in several countries. The sad truth is that I simply cannot estimate what your specific certificates will sell for.

Why can’t I answer a simple question about value and worth? Because trying to predict future value is like tilting at windmills. It is impossible to estimate what a specific certificate will sell for because every single saleis different. Every collector is different. Every motivation is different. Every financial situation is different. A certificate worth thousands of dollars to one collector is possibly worth nothing to another. A dealer might think his certificate is worth $500 but collectors might be willing to pay only $100. Two hundred collectors might view items in one sale, but only ten may see the next.

Correspondents want absolutes. I understand. But it not possible on a single-item basis. Value is in the eye of the beholder.

Values are time-dependent. Every collector has experienced "buyer’s remorse." That is when collectors buy desirable items and then suddenly decide they paid too much. The estimation of value is personal and fleeting. Value is established only at the single moment when two people exchange money. Not one second before. Not one second after. Yesterday’s sales prices often have little relevance for certificates sold today.

Who is asking for value estimates? Obviously, prospective buyers and prospective sellers want to know values. Conceivably, insurance agents want to know value in case they need to pay for lost, damaged, or stolen collectibles. When losses occur, insurers become after-the-fact buyers.

Owners also want to learn about values because a curious thing happens to owners. Once prospective buyers become owners, they suddenly shift into the role of prospective sellers. Sooner or later, all collectors (or their heirs) will need to sell. Even while still experiencing buyer’s remorse, it is not uncommon for collectors to imagine suddenly higher valuations. Fear and greed always co-exist.

Appraisors also like to predict value because they sell information to prospective sellers.

Which value estimate is more correct? The single-item estimate or the whole-collection estimate? It is easier to predict the course of a monstrous hurricane than the path of a single tornado. Similarly, it is much, much easier to predict the value of a large collection than a single cerificate. Human desires and fears are in constant motion, continually affected by millions of outside forces. To a certain extent we can see where the storm of prices is going, but we can't predict prices of a single certificates.

What affects desirability? Estimating values of collectible certificates involves trying to quantify how various features of certificates might affect desirability. Desirability represents the highly complex interplay of features that cause collectors to want or reject items for their collections. Here are some of the most common factors that affect price.

• Age –Collectors usually pay more for older certificates, even though older certificates may be several times more common.
  
• Autographs – Signatures of highly important celebrities enhance values more than all other features combined. Signatures of historically insignificant people matter little.
  
• Back designs – Collectors occasionally offer a little more for certificates with colored or engraved backs. The vast majority of collectors do not seem to care.
  
• Cancellation – Collectors normally pay more for uncancelled certificates than cancelled ones. It is sometimes hard to tell that some certificates are cancelled. Lightly-cancelled certificates are usually more valuable than heavily cancelled versions.
  
• Condition – Collectors normally pay more for certificates in good condition. Folds and punch holes are normal. Collectible certificates are often so scarce that collectors are seldom picky about minor problems. So far, certificates authenticated and encapsulated by grading services have shown little enhanced valuations.
  
• Company names – Certificates from certain popular companies and their predecessors ( Rock Island, Santa Fe, Union Pacific, for instance) are often more valuable than certificates of equal rarity from other companies.
  
• Certificate types – Stocks and bonds usually attract higher bids than certificates of deposit, transfers, subscription receipts, temporary certificates and so forth.
  
• Collections – Collectors and dealers rarely pay higher prices for “complete” collections. When sellers force collectors and dealers to buy whole collections, they force buyers to acquire hard-to-sell duplicate material.
  
• Corporate history – Collectors usually pay a little more for certificates from companies of historical significance.
  
• Denominations – Collectors often pay more for high-denomination stock certificates (>1,000 shares) and certificates issued for high percentages of total capital. Collectors commonly pay a little more for $50,000, $100,000 and million dollar bonds.
  
• Engraved certificates – Collectors usually pay more for certificates with custom-engraved vignettes than they do for plain or generic certificates.
  
• Framed certificates – Experienced collectors usually pay significantly less for framed certificates. Framing and matting seldom matches existing décor. Framed certificates are often sun-damaged and framing normally prevents collectors from properly examining certificates prior to purchase.
  
• Generic certificates - Collectors generally penalize certificates with generic designs, even though the certificates themselves may be quite scarce.
  
• Imprinted revenue stamps – Collectors usually pay a premium for railroad certificates with imprinted United States revenue stamps. They do not pay more for imprinted revenues from other countries.
  
• Issuance – Collectors pay more for issued certificates than they do for unissued remainders.
  
• Location – Most people collect certificates from locations that have personal interest. In terms of establishing value, locations are probably more important than any feature other than autographs.
  
• Operating companies – Collectors usually pay more for certificates from companies that actually operated than for companies that only existed "on paper."
  
• Printing companies – Well-engraved certificates from American Bank Note Company are normally more valuable than those printed by other companies.
  
• Proofs and specimens – Proofs are normally more valuable than regular certificates; specimens are usually priced similar to issued certificates.
  
• Provenance –Most certificates are serial-numbered and give researchers the ability to track ownership. So far, collectors have rarely ascribed any extra value for who may have certificates before them.
  
• Rarity – Rare certificates are usually more valuable than common certificates. Contrary to beginner's opinions, rarity does not always increase value. Search this site for many discussions of the meaning of rarity.
  
• Serial numbers – European collectors generally pay 10% to 50% more for certificates with #1 serial numbers. Certificates with #2 and #3 serial numbers occasionally show some enhanced value, but serial numbers #4 and above rarely increase prices. With apologies, price evidence proves that only a few American collectors ascribe much extra value to low serial numbers.
  
• Themes – Engravings with certain identifiable themes (Niagara Falls, autos) occasionally attract higher valuations than those with normal train-related engravings.

Exceptions to EVERY rule. There are no hard and fast rules for valuation. Certain features are usually more important than others, but not always. This unpredictability frequently causes very strange price behavior. It is extremely common to see near-identical certificates sell for $50 one month, $100 the next and $25 the month after. It is not uncommon to see even larger price ranges!